In the mid 1960’s the NZ Electricity Department and Ministry of Works had a joint team of our smartest engineers studying nuclear power generation in Australia and UK.
Formal proposals were prepared for up to four 250MW reactors at Oyster Point on the Kaipara Harbour, expected to meet the majority of Auckland’s power needs by 1990.
The discovery of the Maui gas field and new coal reserves near Huntly diminished the economic case for nuclear generation. Coupled with the growing public/political opposition to nuclear power, the project was abandoned in 1971.
In the following decades NZ public and political opposition to nuclear power solidified and culminated in the Nuclear Free Zone, Disarmament and Arms Control Act of 1987. Visits by nuclear powered or nuclear armed ships were banned and the country’s anti-nuclear stance became entrenched.
Fast forward to today’s energy market where the NZ commitment to net carbon zero target by 2050 has fueled an almost exclusive development of wind and solar generation in our electricity system.
Electricity demand is increasing as transport and industrial heat processes electrify. Older thermal stations are being closed down and gas is running out due to the previous government ban on oil and gas exploration.
Increasing the proportion of wind and solar generation inherently reduces the stability of the power system and makes it more vulnerable to collapse as happened recently in Spain.
We face an exponentially growing shortage of base load generation (can run 24/7 for days or months) to improve the stability of the power system, meet the demand when the sun does not shine and the wind does not blow and to cover a once in 5-year dry winter when hydro generation is curtailed.
This shortage of base load generation will be exacerbated further in the future as the public intolerance for very large-scale wind and solar (and associated transmission lines) on our landscape becomes more vocal, as it is now doing in Australia.
Realistic options for baseload generation at the scale required in NZ are hydro including pumped storage (like Lake Onslow), geothermal, and new high efficiency thermal fired with coal/gas/wood waste.
The solution going forward will of course be some combination these.
All have very long lead times compared to wind and solar development, so time is of the essence.
There is no pricing signal in today’s electricity market to incentivize the building of this type of plant. Significant government intervention to underwrite the investment and change regulatory settings will be necessary to build the amount of base load generation needed at the speed it will be needed.
Nuclear generation is not an option in the next 20 years. While attractive as a long life, low carbon and energy dense solution, it would come with very large financial, political and time scale costs compared to the other options available. It will however come when these options are exhausted.
